{"id":4654,"date":"2025-05-21T09:47:36","date_gmt":"2025-05-21T07:47:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commandstrategy.com\/?p=4654"},"modified":"2025-09-17T16:42:53","modified_gmt":"2025-09-17T14:42:53","slug":"inflation-menace-passagere-ou-nouveau-paradigme-economique","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commandstrategy.com\/fr\/inflation-menace-passagere-ou-nouveau-paradigme-economique\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation : menace passag\u00e8re ou nouveau paradigme \u00e9conomique ?"},"content":{"rendered":"
[vc_row thb_divider_position=\u00a0\u00bbbottom\u00a0\u00bb][vc_column width=\u00a0\u00bb2\/5″ css=\u00a0\u00bb.vc_custom_1747669023029{margin-top: 3% !important;}\u00a0\u00bb][vc_single_image image=\u00a0\u00bb4675″ img_size=\u00a0\u00bbfull\u00a0\u00bb alignment=\u00a0\u00bbcenter\u00a0\u00bb css=\u00a0\u00bb.vc_custom_1747735055426{margin-top: 5% !important;border-top-width: 5% !important;padding-top: 5% !important;}\u00a0\u00bb][\/vc_column][vc_column width=\u00a0\u00bb3\/5″ css=\u00a0\u00bb.vc_custom_1747665436199{margin-top: 0% !important;border-top-width: 0% !important;padding-top: 0% !important;}\u00a0\u00bb][vc_column_text css=\u00a0\u00bb.vc_custom_1747666414526{margin-top: 0% !important;margin-bottom: 0% !important;border-top-width: 0% !important;border-bottom-width: 0% !important;padding-top: 0% !important;padding-bottom: 0% !important;}\u00a0\u00bb]\r\n

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L\u2019inflation<\/strong>. Depuis quelques ann\u00e9es maintenant et plus pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment depuis la crise Covid, ce mot revient sans cesse tel un leitmotiv dans les conversations au quotidien.<\/span><\/p>\r\n

\u201cLe prix de tel ou tel bien a encore augment\u00e9, le prix du gaz et de l\u2019\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 a encore augment\u00e9\u2026 Cela va encore affecter notre pouvoir d\u2019achat.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\r\n

Ce mot est utilis\u00e9 souvent sans comprendre ce qui se cache derri\u00e8re le concept<\/strong> devenu un v\u00e9ritable ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne de soci\u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e0 travers l\u2019histoire, qui outre l\u2019impact \u00e9conomique<\/strong> qui le d\u00e9finit de prime abord, a un impact social r\u00e9el<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\r\n

Pour comprendre l\u2019inflation, ses causes<\/strong> et ses cons\u00e9quences<\/strong>, il se doit d\u2019aborder en pr\u00e9ambule quelques notions de d\u00e9finitions.<\/span><\/p>\r\n

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<\/span><\/p>\r\n[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row thb_divider_position=\u00a0\u00bbbottom\u00a0\u00bb css=\u00a0\u00bb.vc_custom_1747213631192{margin-top: 0% !important;margin-bottom: 0% !important;border-top-width: 0% !important;border-bottom-width: 0% !important;padding-top: 0% !important;padding-bottom: 0% !important;}\u00a0\u00bb][vc_column css=\u00a0\u00bb.vc_custom_1747664282485{margin-top: 0% !important;margin-bottom: 0% !important;border-top-width: 0% !important;border-bottom-width: 0% !important;padding-top: 0% !important;padding-bottom: 0% !important;}\u00a0\u00bb][vc_column_text css=\u00a0\u00bb.vc_custom_1747756028619{margin-top: 0% !important;margin-bottom: 0% !important;border-top-width: 0% !important;border-bottom-width: 0% !important;padding-top: 0% !important;padding-bottom: 0% !important;}\u00a0\u00bb]\r\n

Le mot inflation<\/strong> provient du mot latin \u00ab inflatio \u00bb<\/em> qui signifie \u00ab gonflement \u00bb<\/em> ainsi que du mot \u00ab inflare \u00bb<\/em> signifiant \u00ab enfler \u00bb<\/em> ; v\u00e9hiculant l\u2019id\u00e9e subtile que l\u2019extension d\u2019une grandeur croissante avec son environnement peut causer des dommages collat\u00e9raux<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\r\n

L\u2019origine \u00e9tymologique du mot inflation porte d\u00e9j\u00e0 en cons\u00e9quence un stigmate n\u00e9gatif.<\/span>
L\u2019inflation d\u00e9finit le ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne \u00e9conomique durable observ\u00e9 de hausse g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e des prix<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\r\n

Outre l\u2019inflation, d\u2019autres concepts accompagnent cette th\u00e9matique \u00e9conomique \u00e0 savoir :<\/span><\/p>\r\n

    \r\n
  • la d\u00e9flation<\/strong>\u00a0: ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne durable observ\u00e9 de baisse g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e des prix<\/strong>,<\/span><\/li>\r\n
  • la d\u00e9sinflation<\/strong> : ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne observ\u00e9 de baisse de l\u2019inflation<\/strong> ou encore un ralentissement de la hausse g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e des prix<\/strong>, autrement dit les prix continuent d\u2019augmenter mais moins rapidement<\/strong>,<\/span><\/li>\r\n
  • l\u2019hyperinflation<\/strong> : ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne observ\u00e9 d\u2019une inflation extr\u00eamement \u00e9lev\u00e9e avec des taux d\u2019inflation impr\u00e9visibles et \u00ab incontr\u00f4lables \u00bb<\/strong> (situation notamment connue par l\u2019Allemagne en 1923 dans l\u2019entre-deux-guerres).<\/span><\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n

    Par ailleurs, les phases c\u00e9l\u00e8bres d\u2019inflation trop \u00e9lev\u00e9e ou trop faible ont souvent d\u00e9bouch\u00e9 sur la cr\u00e9ation de termes en \u00ab flation \u00bb outre ceux d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9voqu\u00e9s tels que :<\/span>
    stagflation<\/strong>, shrinkflation<\/strong> ou encore greedflation<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\r\n

    D\u00e8s lors, comment ce ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne dit d\u2019inflation peut-il se produire ? <\/strong><\/span>Ou autrement formul\u00e9, quelles sont les causes d\u2019une inflation constat\u00e9e et observ\u00e9e ?<\/span><\/p>\r\n

    L\u00e0 ou les r\u00e9ponses r\u00e9sident dans l\u2019appr\u00e9hension de th\u00e9ories \u00e9conomiques<\/strong> dont voici les principes.<\/span><\/p>\r\n[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=\u00a0\u00bb.vc_custom_1747756131491{margin-top: 0% !important;margin-bottom: 0% !important;border-top-width: 0% !important;border-bottom-width: 0% !important;padding-top: 0% !important;padding-bottom: 0% !important;}\u00a0\u00bb]\r\n

    \"\"\u00a0 <\/span>INFLATION par la demande\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/h2>\r\n

    (Th\u00e9oris\u00e9 par Keynes dans sa \u00ab Th\u00e9orie g\u00e9n\u00e9rale de l\u2019emploi, de l\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat et de la monnaie \u00bb)<\/em><\/span><\/p>\r\n

    Si la demande augmente plus vite que l’offre de biens<\/strong> (exc\u00e8s de demande par rapport \u00e0 l\u2019offre et une incapacit\u00e9 de l\u2019\u00e9chelle de production \u00e0 r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 ce surplus de demande), les prix augmentent<\/strong> (effet de raret\u00e9).<\/span><\/p>\r\n

    \u00a0Elle peut r\u00e9sulter :<\/span><\/p>\r\n

      \r\n
    • d’une cr\u00e9ation de monnaie trop importante<\/strong>,<\/span><\/li>\r\n
    • d’une augmentation de la population<\/strong>,<\/span><\/li>\r\n
    • ou d’un effet de rattrapage apr\u00e8s une crise<\/strong> (une pand\u00e9mie par exemple)<\/span><\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n

      \"\"\u00a0INFLATION par les co\u00fbts<\/span><\/h2>\r\n

      L’augmentation des frais auxquels doivent faire face les entreprises se r\u00e9percute sur les prix des biens et services<\/strong>, qui augmentent \u00e0 leur tour.<\/span><\/p>\r\n

      Il peut s’agir :<\/span><\/p>\r\n

        \r\n
      • d’une augmentation des produits import\u00e9s<\/strong> (on parle d’inflation import\u00e9e<\/strong>),<\/span><\/li>\r\n
      • ou des co\u00fbts de production<\/strong> comme les prix de l’\u00e9nergie<\/strong> ou des salaires<\/strong> (notamment si ces derniers augmentent plus vite que la productivit\u00e9).<\/span><\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n

        Cette inflation par les co\u00fbts peut conduire \u00e0 une spirale inflationniste<\/strong>, les entreprises relevant les prix pour maintenir leurs profits.<\/span><\/p>\r\n

        \"\"\u00a0INFLATION par la monnaie<\/span><\/h2>\r\n

        (Th\u00e9orie quantitative de la monnaie du courant mon\u00e9tariste insuffl\u00e9 par Friedman, \u00e9bauch\u00e9e par Bodin puis d\u00e9velopp\u00e9e par Fisher)<\/em><\/span><\/p>\r\n

        Les tenants de la th\u00e9orie mon\u00e9tariste<\/strong> identifient une relation entre la masse mon\u00e9taire en circulation et l’inflation<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\r\n

        L’inflation est ici caus\u00e9e par une cr\u00e9ation mon\u00e9taire excessive<\/strong>, plus pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment d’une croissance de la masse mon\u00e9taire trop forte par rapport \u00e0 la croissance de la production<\/strong>. <\/span><\/p>\r\n

        \u00ab L\u2019inflation est toujours et partout un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne mon\u00e9taire \u00bb\u00a0qui n\u2019a aucun impact positif \u00e0 long terme sur la croissance et l\u2019emploi<\/strong> du fait des anticipations adaptatives des agents \u00e9conomiques.<\/span><\/p>\r\n[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row thb_divider_position=\u00a0\u00bbbottom\u00a0\u00bb css=\u00a0\u00bb.vc_custom_1747213631192{margin-top: 0% !important;margin-bottom: 0% !important;border-top-width: 0% !important;border-bottom-width: 0% !important;padding-top: 0% !important;padding-bottom: 0% !important;}\u00a0\u00bb][vc_column css=\u00a0\u00bb.vc_custom_1747664282485{margin-top: 0% !important;margin-bottom: 0% !important;border-top-width: 0% !important;border-bottom-width: 0% !important;padding-top: 0% !important;padding-bottom: 0% !important;}\u00a0\u00bb][vc_column_text css=\u00a0\u00bb.vc_custom_1747816508193{margin-top: 0% !important;margin-bottom: 0% !important;border-top-width: 0% !important;border-bottom-width: 0% !important;padding-top: 0% !important;padding-bottom: 0% !important;}\u00a0\u00bb]\r\n

        \"\"Contexte r\u00e9cent : Covid, guerre, <\/strong>cha\u00eene d\u2019approvisionnement<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\r\n

        Si l\u2019histoire \u00e9conomique a montr\u00e9 et \u00e9prouv\u00e9 ses th\u00e9ories pouvant par l\u2019une ou l\u2019autre expliquer l\u2019inflation constat\u00e9e, le pass\u00e9 r\u00e9cent a r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9 que les trois causes majeures peuvent coexister<\/strong> et contribuer simultan\u00e9ment \u00e0 g\u00e9n\u00e9rer de l\u2019inflation ; mais aussi qu\u2019une nouvelle typologie de crise pouvait impliquer un changement de paradigme<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\r\n

        Si l\u2019inflation peut \u00e9maner d\u2019un exc\u00e8s de demande par rapport \u00e0 l\u2019offre de biens, la r\u00e9ciprocit\u00e9 est vraie : une insuffisance ou limitation de l\u2019offre <\/strong>par rapport \u00e0 la demande engendrera \u00e9galement de l\u2019inflation.<\/span><\/p>\r\n

        La crise de la Covid et les politiques de confinement ont d\u00e9sorganis\u00e9 les cha\u00eenes de production et d\u2019approvisionnement mondiales<\/strong>, ce qui a limit\u00e9 l\u2019offre dans les biens durables et manufacturiers, r\u00e9duisant ainsi l\u2019offre face \u00e0 la demande mondiale et cr\u00e9ant de l\u2019inflation<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\r\n

        De la m\u00eame mani\u00e8re, les p\u00e9nuries de main-d\u2019\u0153uvre<\/strong> ont r\u00e9duit m\u00e9caniquement l\u2019offre. Pour inciter les travailleurs \u00e0 continuer, il a fallu accorder des augmentations de salaires qui, via la hausse des co\u00fbts de production, ont \u00e9galement nourri l\u2019inflation<\/strong> ; les entreprises \u00e9tant contraintes d\u2019augmenter leurs prix pour pr\u00e9server leurs marges.<\/span><\/p>\r\n

        Plus r\u00e9cemment, la guerre en Ukraine<\/strong> a entra\u00een\u00e9 une crise de l\u2019offre \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, provoquant une hausse des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie<\/strong> et donc une amplification de l\u2019inflation, li\u00e9e \u00e0 l\u2019augmentation des co\u00fbts pour les entreprises mais aussi des prix alimentaires : c\u2019est ce qu\u2019on appelle l\u2019inflation import\u00e9e<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\r\n

        \"\"<\/strong><\/span>Impacts \u00e9conomiques de l\u2019inflation et leviers d\u2019action<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\r\n

        D\u2019une mani\u00e8re g\u00e9n\u00e9rale, il existe un consensus selon lequel l\u2019inflation est n\u00e9faste pour le pouvoir d\u2019achat<\/strong> des m\u00e9nages et le potentiel de croissance d\u2019une \u00e9conomie. En effet, si les salaires ne suivent pas l\u2019augmentation des prix, les prix augmentent plus vite que les salaires, cela entra\u00eene m\u00e9caniquement une baisse de la quantit\u00e9 de biens et services qu\u2019un m\u00e9nage peut acheter. Aussi, face \u00e0 une inflation de l\u2019\u00e9conomie domestique, la concurrence des produits import\u00e9s (commerce ext\u00e9rieur), qui deviennent plus attractifs au contraire des produits locaux export\u00e9s dont la valeur s\u2019accro\u00eet, p\u00e9nalise ainsi la comp\u00e9titivit\u00e9 d\u2019une \u00e9conomie<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\r\n

        De m\u00eame, l\u2019inflation r\u00e9duisant le pouvoir d\u2019achat des m\u00e9nages, elle p\u00e9nalise simultan\u00e9ment l\u2019\u00e9pargne<\/strong>, conduisant ainsi \u00e0 une baisse de l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique, une diminution de l\u2019investissement et, par cons\u00e9quent, de la croissance \u00e9conomique.<\/span><\/p>\r\n

        Ma\u00eetriser les origines et cons\u00e9quences<\/strong> de l\u2019inflation permet de lutter efficacement et de mettre en place des r\u00e9ponses adapt\u00e9es<\/strong> selon les cas.<\/span><\/p>\r\n

        Une des r\u00e9ponses historiques r\u00e9side dans l\u2019intervention des organismes financiers type banques centrales<\/strong> (BCE, Fed), afin d\u2019influer sur la masse mon\u00e9taire en jouant sur les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eats directeurs<\/strong>. En effet, une augmentation des taux (\u00ab prix de la monnaie \u00bb) pourra limiter la circulation de la masse mon\u00e9taire et ainsi contr\u00f4ler l\u2019inflation ; mais aussi agir sur celle-ci via la demande, en r\u00e9duisant les investissements tout en stimulant l\u2019\u00e9pargne.<\/span><\/p>\r\n

        Aussi, augmenter la capacit\u00e9 de production des entreprises permettra d\u2019ajuster le d\u00e9s\u00e9quilibre entre l\u2019offre et la demande, et ainsi juguler l\u2019inflation<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\r\n

        La diversit\u00e9 des crises \u00e9conomiques montre que les leviers d\u2019action<\/strong> varient<\/strong> selon que l\u2019inflation provienne d\u2019un exc\u00e8s de la demande ou d\u2019une insuffisance de l\u2019offre. La multiplicit\u00e9 des facteurs \u00e9conomiques agissant simultan\u00e9ment rend cette t\u00e2che particuli\u00e8rement complexe.<\/span><\/p>\r\n

        Si l\u2019inflation n\u2019est pas un concept r\u00e9cent, les instruments financiers index\u00e9s sur l\u2019inflation<\/strong> rel\u00e8vent d\u2019une dynamique plus moderne des march\u00e9s, apparus seulement au d\u00e9but des ann\u00e9es 2000<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\r\n[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row thb_divider_position=\u00a0\u00bbbottom\u00a0\u00bb css=\u00a0\u00bb.vc_custom_1747813546154{margin-top: 5% !important;margin-bottom: 2% !important;border-top-width: 5% !important;border-bottom-width: 2% !important;padding-top: 0% !important;padding-bottom: 2% !important;background-color: #f4f4f4 !important;background-position: center !important;background-repeat: no-repeat !important;background-size: cover !important;border-top-color: #ed7d31 !important;border-bottom-color: #ed7d31 !important;}\u00a0\u00bb][vc_column css=\u00a0\u00bb.vc_custom_1747208435483{margin-bottom: 0% !important;}\u00a0\u00bb][vc_column_text css=\u00a0\u00bb.vc_custom_1747748457112{margin-top: 2% !important;margin-bottom: 0% !important;border-top-width: 2% !important;border-bottom-width: 0% !important;padding-bottom: 1% !important;}\u00a0\u00bb]\r\n

        Sources :<\/h3>\r\n

        \"\"\u00a0 L\u2019inflation, un changement de paradigme : quelles causes et comment la contr\u00f4ler ?
        \"\"\u00a0 L\u2019inflation, c\u2019est quoi, au juste – Et quelles sont ses causes (Bastien Drut Publi\u00e9 le 03\/02\/2024)
        \"\"\u00a0 La crise de l\u2019inflation montre que c\u2019est l\u2019offre, et non la demande, qui restreint la capacit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique et que l\u2019\u00c9tat ne peut emprunter ind\u00e9finiment (John H. Cochrane)
        \"\"\u00a0 Qu’est-ce que l’inflation ?
        \"\"\u00a0 Inflation Derivatives Explained – Markets, Products, and Pricing (Jeroen Kerkhof – Fixed Income Quantitative Research – Lehman Brothers)<\/span><\/p>\r\n[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row thb_divider_position=\u00a0\u00bbbottom\u00a0\u00bb][vc_column][vc_column_text]\r\n

        \r\n

        \"Vincent<\/p>\r\n

        Auteur<\/div>\r\n
        Fabrice ROUSSEAU<\/div>\r\n
        Senior Manager<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        [vc_row thb_divider_position=\u00a0\u00bbbottom\u00a0\u00bb][vc_column width=\u00a0\u00bb2\/5″ css=\u00a0\u00bb.vc_custom_1747669023029{margin-top: 3% !important;}\u00a0\u00bb][vc_single_image image=\u00a0\u00bb4675″ img_size=\u00a0\u00bbfull\u00a0\u00bb alignment=\u00a0\u00bbcenter\u00a0\u00bb css=\u00a0\u00bb.vc_custom_1747735055426{margin-top: 5% !important;border-top-width: 5% !important;padding-top: 5% !important;}\u00a0\u00bb][\/vc_column][vc_column width=\u00a0\u00bb3\/5″ css=\u00a0\u00bb.vc_custom_1747665436199{margin-top: 0% !important;border-top-width: 0% !important;padding-top: 0% !important;}\u00a0\u00bb][vc_column_text 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